Upgrd.com

I'm sitting in the (very lovely) IAD Admirals Club right now as I await my flight to LAX. Unless something crazy happens, I'll be sitting in economy for the first time in six months or so.

Here's the math, according the AAngel at the front desk:

• AA only flies 757s on the IAD-LAX route, which has "only" 22 seats in first.
• There are only three flights a day to LAX.
• And its not like there's many other options out of IAD. You can fly IAD-MIA-LAX, or IAD-DFW-LAX. And that's about it, unless you switch to DCA or BWI. (And in this case, I needed to fly in and out of IAD.)
• On Thursdays, flights out of IAD can have as many as thirty (thirty!) Executive Platinum members onboard, and lots of people paying full-fare first. That's because lots of beltway lobbyists and consultants take Friday off, and they fly home on Thursday evening. This morning, AA had four open seats on my flight. All of them sold. (Also, I'm an EXP who booked my ticket three months out. And I'm fourth on the list. That's pretty damn unusual for a flight in January.)

So if you want an upgrade, don't fly out of IAD on a Thursday evening.

(By the way, stay tuned for my full report on IAD's new train system. Buh-bye MoonBuggies!)