The simple answer is very safe, but I thought I’d give a behind the scenes view on how safe the aircraft is, and, in the current climate, how safe from external forces such as terrorism.
First of all, the aircraft. Most airlines throughout the world have a surprisingly young range of aircraft. For example the average age of Ryanair (biggest low cost carrier in Europe) aircraft is only 3.7years old. Most of the major American carriers (Continental, United, Southwestern) have fleet ages around 15 years old. This may seem old to people who buy a new car every 5 years, but when a new 737 can easily cost over 50 million USD, you would expect any carrier to get as much bang for their buck as possible!
Keeping the fleet age down has another added bonus. Instead of retrofitting new technology onto older aircraft, at a cost of millions, advances in safety are standard in these newer models. Traffic Collision Avoidance Systems, Ground Proximity Warning Systems, heads up displays, Forward Looking Infra-Red cameras giving a clear view of the runway day or night in any weather (although that is still an option on most aircraft!) and other boxes of tricks keeps the safety levels very high. A modern airbus (the rival to Boeing) has computers so powerful that so long as it is being fed information correctly (ref Air France 447) it is nearly impossible to crash; the aircraft will prevent you from overbanking, will automatically power you out of any stall and will automatically retract any flaps preventing structural damage.
All this technology is all well and good but there is still one major safety gap … ergonomics, the man machine interface, notably the “man” part of that statement. Over 50% of all accidents since the 1950’s have been attributed to pilot error (the second major cause, mechanical failure, makes up 22%). This will never be avoidable until the pilot is completely removed from the cockpit, which in my humble opinion will never happen. Humans don’t like change, and how many people look up into the cockpit as they board to make sure there is a pilot there!
The aviation industry itself is the biggest driver of safety, and companies spend literally millions each year ensuring high levels of crew training and safety. A lot has happened since the 1950’s and the concept of Crew Resource Management is emblazoned on every new pilot’s psyche: if in doubt,challenge the captain. There have been incidents in the past of co-pilots sitting quietly doing nothing whilst the Captain plunges the aircraft into a mountain. Why? Because they are too over awed to voice their opinions to dominating Captains. Those personality types are a rarity these days fortunately and much work is done during training to develop effective teamwork skills.
How about my training? Well, even though I fly for a small company the standards of my flying are regularly tested. I fly once a month with my chief pilot or another senior pilot who assess my flying capabilities. Every 6 months I have to pass a full flight test, involving engine failures, fire drills, de-pressurisation, mechanical failures etc etc. I also have to demonstrate to a high standard the skills of flying instrument approaches. If my skills are not up to scratch, I lose my job, no ifs or buts. I also have a full medical once a year, where every part of my body is inspected for signs of failure. My medical is never something I look forward to! And again, if I lose my medical, I lose my job.
How about the other safety factor, that thing outside our control? People intent on taking over the plane? Acts of airborne terrorism have been around since the first days of aviation but it was the tragic events of 9/11 which really stepped up security to an unprecedented level. However, it is worth bearing in mind that acts of sabotage have only accounted for 9% of aviation accidents. Before 2001 the cockpit door was mostly left open, and was generally made from cheap plywood - a swift kick in the middle would shatter it. These days the cockpit door would rival those of most banks vaults. You couldn’t even break it open with a blow torch. The doors are also locked by codes made available only to flight staff. For obvious reasons, I’m not going to go into too much detail about this!
Security on the ground. With my job I go through airport security a lot, and I mean, a lot! Unlike my friends at the airlines who generally end up at the same airport they start in and only see one security checkpoint, my working life has me going in and out of a number of minor and major airports, through the crew and ground staff security to the side (separate from the main passenger security in the terminal). I also attend a security ground course once a year so am aware of measures in place. Not only are the metal detectors used in all airports of a very high standard, they also have a number of tricks up their sleeves to ensure a secure zone. For example, the sensitivity of the arch you walk through can be turned up or down. They also go off randomly, allowing for a full check by one of the ever helpful security guards! This is why you may walk through the detector arch knowing full well you have nothing metal on you, yet it still frustratingly goes off! I’ve ensured there is no metal on my uniform, my belt buckle is faux metal (actually plastic), and my shoes have no metal re-enforcer in the sole. But you can guarantee that that dastardly little bleep will go off when I walk through!
Along with all the high tech metal screening equipment, I have noticed that more and more airports are deploying sniffer dogs, because it doesn’t matter how good your metal detector is, it will always be beaten by a Springer spaniel’s nose!
So, in summary, your flight is incredibly safe. Security is driven by the highest threat level, and the aircraft use the most advanced technology I work in an industry which strives day in and day out for 100% safe operations. In the airlines there are only 4 passenger fatalities per million miles flown. The circumference of the earth is 25,000miles at the equator which means you can fly around the world 40 times for only 4 passenger deaths – compare this with the risk of driving on the roads.
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